August 2026; Vol. 15, No. 2: Pages 21-25
Individualized high-velocity running exposure and lower-body soft-tissue injury in professional rugby: A within-athlete matched analysis
Anthony Deldin, Stephanie Wilson, Addie Waterman, Larkin Lee, Ekaterina Yakovlev
Abstract
Objectives: To examine whether individualized high-velocity running (HVR) exposure metrics distinguish lower-body soft-tissue injury periods from matched within-athlete control periods in a single professional rugby team, and to evaluate whether such an analysis is feasible with the data one club holds. Design: Retrospective within-athlete matched case-control analysis. Methods: Forty-seven male professional rugby union players were monitored across a 20-week competitive window in 2025 using 10-Hz GPS units; 35 had preseason body-composition records. Fifteen lower-body soft-tissue injuries were identified, and six had monitoring data at both the injury anchor and a within-athlete control anchor 28 days earlier. HVR was defined at 85%, 90%, and 95% of individual maximum velocity. Recency and 7- and 14-day frequency were compared using conditional logistic regression, with Firth-penalized estimation and minimum detectable odds ratios (MDOR). Results: No metric was associated with injury. At 85%, recency odds ratio (OR) was 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-1.32; 4 pairs), 7-day frequency 1.00 (95% CI 0.14-7.10; 6 pairs), and 14-day frequency 3.00 (95% CI 0.31-28.84; 6 pairs). Four models showed quasi-complete separation and one had no informative strata. MDOR ranged from 1.33 to 25.41. Conclusions: Individualized HVR metrics did not separate injury from control periods. The findings indicate uncertainty rather than absence of effect and illustrate why single-team datasets are poorly suited to individualized HVR injury-risk inference.
Received June 26, 2026; accepted August 10, 2026